Double-digit percentage gains for XRP (XRP) this month may have reached the point of exhaustion, reflecting trends elsewhere in the cryptocurrency market.
This follows the euphoria surrounding Ripple’s partial victory against the US Securities and Exchange Commission, resulting in bullish calls for up to $15 in the coming months.
$15 is reasonable I believe for 18 months or so.
If they do the IPO and time it right it could be up to $35 imo.
Make no mistake… it may not go that high… but $ XRP This cycle is breaking all-time highs, barring some kind of futile and vindictive SEC appeal. (Low Chance) https://t.co/rrMCuOacrE
— Ben Armstrong (@Bitboy_Crypto) July 19, 2023
However, fractal analysis of XRP’s recent candlestick and momentum price patterns hint that a sharp market correction is not off the table, especially if history repeats itself.
The XRP price fractal preceded the 65% decline.
Notably, certain XRP market signals preceded a 65% price drop in Q2, 2021. These are now rekindling, namely multi-year downtrend line resistance and an “overbought” relative strength index (RSI), as illustrated below.
The descending trendline resistance (marked as “upper trendline resistance” on the chart above) has limited XRP’s upside since January 2018. This price ceiling is supported by another horizontal trendline resistance. trendline (purple) near $0.93.
Overall, the confluence of resistance, coupled with an overbought RSI, now increases XRP’s risks of a market correction. In this case, XRP price is likely to fall towards the lower trendline support near $0.52 by September, dropping almost 40% from current price levels.
Related: Chairman Gensler says SEC reaction to Ripple decision mixed, still under review
Interestingly, the downside target looks closer to XRP’s 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; red wave), which raises the possibility of a bounce around this level. Moreover, wave support was the last local level during the price decline in Q2 2021.
As of July 20, XRP’s price is up 70% month-to-date, outperforming the broader crypto market, which rose just 5% over the same period.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.